ASIA - PACIFIC REGION ECONOMICS AND CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR.TRUMP'S INTERNATIONAL RATING REMAIN LOW,ESPECIALLY AMONG KEY ALLIES.ASIAN COUNTRIES HAVE LARGELY DISAGREE ON TRUMP'S POLICY.MAJORITIES ASIAN COUNTRIES ARE CONCERNED ABOUT NORTH'S KOREA'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

The population of the Asia-Pacific region is 4.2 billion, representing some 60% of the world's population. So while Asia's economic development promises an Asian Century, Asia has always dominated the world in terms of population.Asia has immense population diversity  from countries like China (1.3 billion), India (1.2 billion), Indonesia (242 million), Pakistan (177 miilion), Bangladesh (150 million) and Japan (126 million) -- to small countries like Laos (6.3 million), Kyrgyzstan (5.4 million), Mongolia (2.8 million), Timor-Leste (1.2 million)  to city states Hong Kong (7.1 million), Singapore (5.2 million) and Macao (0.6 million).The comparative political economy of East Asia, a highly dynamic region and one of critical importance to Australia's economic prosperity and security. It examines nine countries, including China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within these national settings, it focuses on government interventions in national economies and business involvement in politics, and activities that have helped to shape different rates of economic growth and political openness.One of the challenges commonly faced by those that work in or across the Asia Pacific region .if they are part of a US or European based organization – is to ensure their Head/Home office team understand some of the fundamental realities regarding the Asia Pacific region geography and diversity.When it comes to providing an Asia Pacific region overview the reality is there’s really no place called Asia, or Asia Pacific. It may well be that as part of a multinational organization the various markets in the region are consolidated together on one balance sheet, or it may be that there is an actual continent called “Asia” and one called “Australia” on the map, but that’s often as far as it’s possible to take the description.Companies may operate an Asia Pacific business region but the moment they forget this is theoretical only and does not actually exist, they are headed for trouble.While some definitions of Asia include the Middle East, a more common current definition takes the region from Pakistan in the west through to Japan in the east, and stretches south and south-east to Indonesia’s sprawling archipelago. It includes the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and much or Russia itself; the region of South Asia commonly describing India and the subcontinent; South East Asia which includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines; Greater China; and North Asia, often used to cover Japan and the Korean Peninsula.Using the term “Asia Pacific” signifies the inclusion of Australia and New Zealand, along with the Pacific Islands and states that cover a vast region from Micronesia through a list of exotic destinations as far as Tahiti.That rolls of the tongue very easily, but pause for a moment to reflect that what this describes is around half the world’s surface; half the world’s population; the world’s second and third largest economies (Japan and China); the world’s two most populous countries (China and India); the world’s most populous Islamic nation (Indonesia); and four known nuclear powers (Pakistan, India, China, and Russia with the jury still out about North Korea).But the Asia Pacific region diversity and complexity – and the perils of failing to really grasp the fact that Asia isn’t one relatively homogenous region – go so much deeper. But rather than being defeated by this, it’s possible to start to make some sense of the region by understanding just ten key concepts.Distances and travel times have a more significant impact than many realize. From Karachi in the west to Wellington in the east the Asia Pacific region has a time zone variance of up to 7 hours, and the travel distances and time to cover the region are significant. It’s an 8-10 hour flight to and from Australia’s largest cities of Sydney and Melbourne to Tokyo, Shanghai, or Bangkok. From the northern and eastern cities of Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai or Beijing it can be 10 hours or longer to Mumbai or New Delhi, and completing the triangle from India to Australia commonly takes twice that time with a stopover somewhere.Even for a business person located within the region somewhere more central like Singapore, Hong Kong or Bangkok travel times and distances impact to a much greater extent than executives responsible for other regions.There is no common “Asian” culture or approach to business. The Asia Pacific region consists of many, widely diverse cultures with long histories and very little in common between them. This is reflected in many different ways, including in business.While there may be some overt similarities in the way some things are valued (such as education and personal relationships), it is a fundamental error to think there is any such thing as a common “Asian” culture, or that what you have learned as being appropriate in one part of the region is automatically the same elsewhere.Chinese officials like to talk about practicing “win-win” diplomacy. Their American counterparts sometime joke that this means China wins twice. From November 3 to November 14, Donald Trump will visit Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and China, on the longest foreign trip of his presidency thus far. What can the Trump administration accomplish that would effectively address its priorities? What’s the likelihood of a significant breakthrough on trade, market access, or North Korean denuclearization? There is no common “Asian” culture or approach to business. The Asia Pacific region consists of many, widely diverse cultures with long histories and very little in common between them. This is reflected in many different ways, including in business.While there may be some overt similarities in the way some things are valued (such as education and personal relationships), it is a fundamental error to think there is any such thing as a common “Asian” culture, or that what you have learned as being appropriate in one part of the region is automatically the same elsewhere.

ASEAN leaders meet in Singapore as Beijing and Washington compete for investment influence.As Southeast Asian countries continue to fret over managing the perennial fear of a conflict in the South China Sea, they remain concerned about the geopolitical implications of drawing economically closer to China. Many, but not all, of these nations find appeal in a broad regional trade deal, but continue to see deals with the US as a better wager for their long-term security concerns.

Asian cultures have long, proud histories. Modern China sees itself as the result of 3,000 years of unbroken civilization and culture. South Asia has a proud history of the glories of past empires and civilization stretching back to Alexander the Great and earlier. Marco Polo traversed the Silk Road of Central Asia to be amazed at the sophisticated technology he discovered.There is no common language across the region, other than English. Although Mandarin (China’s official language) is spoken by many people in Greater China and of Chinese heritage, it is a language not commonly used elsewhere in the region. Although they are the same in written form, there are many different spoken dialects in China, and a critical thing to remember is that character-based languages like Chinese require double-byte character capacity in software.Not only do languages differ across the region, the entire alphabet and writing style differs between, for example, Hindi, Thai, Japanese and Korean. English is without doubt the most common unifying language and is increasingly well studied and used, especially in business. However language still presents a major impediment to many, and is an additional layer of complexity.Asian cultures have long, proud histories. Modern China sees itself as the result of 3,000 years of unbroken civilization and culture. South Asia has a proud history of the glories of past empires and civilization stretching back to Alexander the Great and earlier. Marco Polo traversed the Silk Road of Central Asia to be amazed at the sophisticated technology he discovered.The Khmer civilization that built the amazing Angkor Wat complex flourished while Europe. languished in the Dark Ages. Japan has a proud history and reveres the Shogun tradition that unified the country. Many Asian cultures have a sense of being anchored in the past to a greater extent than many, especially those of the New World, and are sometimes bemused with western perspectives of history that overlook these facts.Between Western cultures and Asian, and from one Asian market to another, you cannot make assumptions that things operate the same way, or that the desires and motivations are the same.This extends from bureaucratic processes to the way that countries and businesses are run, and how people expect them to act and operate. It extends from the way legal agreements are viewed, to what is meant by the simple words “yes” and “no”, through to fundamental views on what is right and wrong, or what is acceptable and not acceptable in business.Australia and New Zealand are not sure how committed they are to joining the party – which. partially stems from the obvious fact that it’s not clear if they are invited, and however you play it, they will be the ‘different’ ones – like if Kenya and Zambia joined the European Community.There is so much about Australia and New Zealand that clearly differentiates these two countries from the rest of Asia; and yet their geographic proximity and increasing integration with the rest of Asia are also powerful arguments they should be seen as part of the region. Growing levels of Asian investment, immigration, and education in these countries along with growing dependence on commodity exports to Asia make additional arguments in favor of their inclusion, and this is likely to be a continuing trend.People placed in these positions typically ‘don’t know what they don’t know’ and it is knot unknown for some to carry misguided views that range from perspectives of cultural superiority more suited to the 19th Century outlook on colonialism, through to a simple inability to understand the sovereignty of other nations and their right to have policies and regulations that are not the same as other countries.This attitude can lead to the new manager appearing (and perhaps actually believing) to know better than subordinates who have worked in the region and know the lie of the land, and whose typical response to a new manager who doesn’t want to listen is to simply allow him or her to find out the hard way.The realities underpinning the mythical Asia Pacific business region should be compulsory education for every new manager given responsibilities across this region. Commencing a new responsibility with an Asia Pacific overview that provides an understanding of these ten points will go a long way towards equipping an international executive with enough of a framework of understanding to hopefully not make any major early blunders, and be able to build confidence as their own experience grows. Demographic trends are key to understanding the region’s future. While this is a complex issue, the key point is that fertility (the birth rate) is generally falling, and life expectancy is generally rising. With fewer people being born and people living longer, the average age of the population is increasing, with very significant implications on the economy as a result.This trend started several decades ago in Japan, which is now starting to experience the implications of fewer people in the work force supporting more who are in retirement, and the nations of China and South Korea can already see this will become a real issue over the next few decades.The same trends are starting to become evident in other countries however it’s likely to be mid century before this is seen as a major issue. Although the birth rate is falling, much of South and South East Asia is a very young population, and in many parts of the region more than half the entire population is under the age of 25.

Businesses are affected not only by tax rates but also by the ease with which taxes are paid in a jurisdiction. Therefore, it is advisable for business and tax payers to consider aspects like time taken to calculate taxes, to file tax returns, and effectiveness of a government’s tax policies in a particular jurisdiction – more than tax rates – while determining the place of doing business.  For many of the ASEAN’s developing markets, slight differences in tax rates can be more than offset by difference in time taken to comply with tax-related procedures.

In the 40 years since China began opening its doors to more market-oriented economic policies, the country has experienced explosive growth that many refer to as nothing short of a miracle. The nation’s growing influence has been felt on every continent, and people have taken note that China continues to play an ever-larger role in world affairs. But more power brings more expectations and accountability, and in our most recent survey many people around the globe say they want an alternative to China as the world’s leading power.Across the 25 countries polled in a recent Pew Research Center survey, a median of 45% have a favorable view of China, while 43% hold an unfavorable view. Majorities or pluralities in 12 countries give China positive marks, with favorable attitudes most prevalent in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia. In the United States, 38% have a favorable opinion of China, a slight decrease from 44% in 2017, while nearly half expressed unfavorable attitudes.A global median of 70% say China plays a more important role in the world than it did 10 years ago. Russia is a distant second in this assessment, with only 41% saying that country is more important than it was a decade ago. A median of only 31% believe the U.S. plays a more important role than it did a decade ago – less than half of the share who say this of China. Only 8% of those surveyed say China plays a less important role than it did a decade ago, the lowest share across the seven countries tested. In the U.S., 72% believe China is more important now than it was a decade ago, while only 31% of Americans say the same about their own country.While most agree that China’s global role has grown over the past decade, a lack of enthusiasm for Chinese world leadership persists. A median of 34% of people around the world currently regard China as the world’s leading economic power  only slightly less than the 39% who picked the U.S. Yet when thinking about the future, a 25-country median of 63% say they prefer a world in which the U.S. is the leading power, while just 19% would favor one in which China leads. Notably, four of the five countries most inclined to choose the U.S. over China are located in the Asia-Pacific region: 81% of Japanese, 77% of Filipinos, 73% of South Koreans and 72% of Australians all favor a future where Washington, not Beijing, leads.Those who are more likely to say that China does not respect the personal freedoms of its people also tend to have more unfavorable views of China (e.g. France, Sweden). Conversely, people who are less disapproving of China’s human rights record show lower unfavorable opinions of China overall (Nigeria, Kenya, Tunisia). European nations surveyed tend to be particularly critical – a median of 82% across the 10 EU countries surveyed say China does not respect personal freedoms. Among countries at the more negative end of the scale, Japan is the outlier, showing higher levels of general dissatisfaction with China that may relate to historical and political strains in bilateral relations.The concept, while still a work in progress, is designed to present an alternative vision to a China-centric regional order. This comports with a growing consensus among strategists inside the Trump Administration that the United States needs a new approach to Asia that assumes a more competitive stance toward China, one that sheds long-held aspirations for either a highly collaborative U.S.-China relationship or China’s evolution into anything approximating a “responsible stakeholder.”What is striking, however, is the degree to which Trump’s China policy to date has been nearly opposite of what would be required for a strategy dedicated to a “free and open Indo-Pacific” narrowly focused on North Korea and trade, rather than holistic and comprehensive; explicitly transactional rather than based on deeply-rooted principles and values; rejecting multilateralism, rather than supporting regional institutions and collective action; emphasizing “America First” rather than American leadership; and being forgiving even flattering of China and Xi Jinping, rather than reflecting the emergent ideological competition.In the wake of the Administration’s conspicuous “Indo-Pacific” rollout, this begs the question of whether Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing will represent a turning point in U.S. China policy or U.S.-China relations. Will there be any evidence in Beijing of a strategic shift in Washington? Don’t count on it. The visit will be long on ceremony and short on substance. Trump isn’t interested in playing hardball with his host in public. And while the Administration will put down markers privately on areas of frustration and disappointment, it isn’t using the visit as a forcing function or negotiating session. Instead, Air Force One will depart for Vietnam with little changed and little achieved.For years, countries in the region have been moving toward closer integration rather than disintegration. For example, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) have become a boon for the countries in the region looking to improve infrastructure and connectivity.China and India also have strengthened ties despite their unresolved border disputes. The two countries are key members of the BRICS. Just in September, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the BRICS leaders meeting in Hangzhou.At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, in June, India and Pakistan became full members of the organization.China is now India’s largest trade partner. More Chinese companies, such as Huawei, ZTE, Alibaba and Xiaomi, have invested in India, while more Indian companies, especially in software and IT services companies, have invested in China.The potential for win-win cooperation between the world’s two most populous nations is enormous, and there is no reason for them at all to engage in a zero-sum game. It is entirely OK for the U.S. to propose an Indo-Pacific strategy. However, such a strategy should not aim at a third country, such as China. And it would serve the U.S.’ interests best if its strategy is to unite all the countries in the region rather than try to divide them.

North Korea is still making nukes, and the Trump admin is taking a harder lineThe newest intelligence shows Kim’s regime has stepped up efforts to hide its nuclear weapons production, say three senior U.S. officials.As President Donald Trump issues a steady stream of praise for Kim Jong Un in interviews and on Twitter, a steady stream of evidence that North Korea is still making nuclear weapons has pushed his administration to take a much more aggressive stance toward Pyongyang.

Trump’s International Ratings Remain Low, Especially Among Key Allies.Most still want U.S. as top global power, but see China on the riseAmerica’s global image plummeted following the election of President Donald Trump, amid widespread opposition to his administration’s policies and a widely shared lack of confidence in his leadership. Now, as the second anniversary of Trump’s election approaches, a new 25-nation Pew Research Center survey finds that Trump’s international image remains poor, while ratings for the United States are much lower than during Barack Obama’s presidency.The poll also finds that international publics express significant concerns about America’s role in world affairs. Large majorities say the U.S. doesn’t take into account the interests of countries like theirs when making foreign policy decisions. Many believe the U.S. is doing less to help solve major global challenges than it used to. And there are signs that American soft power is waning as well, including the fact that, while the U.S. maintains its reputation for respecting individual liberty, fewer believe this than a decade ago. Frustrations with the U.S. in the Trump era are particularly common among some of America’s closest allies and partners. In Germany, where just 10% have confidence in Trump, three-in-four people say the U.S. is doing less these days to address global problems, and the share of the public who believe the U.S. respects personal freedoms is down 35 percentage points since 2008. In France, only 9% have confidence in Trump, while 81% think the U.S. doesn’t consider the interests of countries like France when making foreign policy decisions.Critical views are also widespread among America’s closest neighbors. Only 25% of Canadians rate Trump positively, more than six-in-ten (63%) say the U.S. is doing less than in the past to address global problems, and 82% think the U.S. ignores Canada’s interests when making policy. Meanwhile, Trump’s lowest ratings on the survey are found in Mexico, where just 6% express confidence in his leadership.One exception to this pattern is Israel. After a year in which the Trump administration generated international controversy by moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, his positive rating jumped to 69%, up from 56% in 2017.Around the world, publics are divided about the direction of American power: Across the 25 nations surveyed, a median of 31% say the U.S. plays a more important role in the world today than it did ten years ago; 25% say it plays a less important role; and 35% believe the U.S. is as important as it was a decade ago.In contrast, views about Chinese power are clear: A median of 70% say China’s role on the world stage has grown over the past 10 years. Still, by a slim margin, more people name the U.S. as the world’s leading economic power (a median of 39% say the U.S., 34% say China).And despite the unease many feel about the U.S. at the moment, the idea of a U.S.-led world order is still attractive to most. When asked which would be better for the world, having China or the U.S. as the top global power, people in nearly every country tend to select the U.S., and this is particularly common among some of China’s Asia-Pacific neighbors, such as Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia.Trade disputes have dominated relations between the world’s two biggest economies in recent weeks, as Washington and Beijing have slapped tariffs on goods from their respective countries. Although tensions over trade are hardly new, they have intensified during the Trump administration, and as a new Pew Research Center survey illustrates, American attitudes toward China have become somewhat less positive over the past year.Overall, 38% of Americans have a favorable opinion of China, down slightly from 44% in 2017. Attitudes toward China have fluctuated to some extent in recent years, becoming more negative during the 2012 election cycle, but more positive in 2017, before this year’s decline.Asian nations are divided when it comes to having confidence in Trump. Globally, a median of just 22% say they are confident Trump will do the right thing when it comes to international affairs. But of all 37 countries the Center surveyed, Trump’s greatest support comes from the Philippines, where 69% say they have confidence in him. A majority of people in Vietnam (58%) also express confidence in Trump. The shares are much smaller in Japan (24%) and South Korea (17%). In these two countries, confidence in the U.S. president is down dramatically from the end of the Obama administration. South Korea, for example, has seen a 71-percentage-point drop in confidence in the U.S. president since 2015. Many in Asia see the U.S. as the world’s leading economic power. Although many European publics view China as the world’s leading economic power, majorities in South Korea (66%) and Japan (62%) say the distinction belongs to the U.S. Around half of those in Vietnam (51%) and the Philippines (49%) also say this of the U.S., similar to the share of Americans (51%) who hold this view. Among the four Asian countries, the shares who say China is the world’s biggest economic power ranges from 17% in Vietnam to 27% in South Korea.Most oppose Trump policies that withdraw U.S. support for major trade and climate change agreements. Globally, a median of 72% disapprove of Trump’s proposal to withdraw the U.S. from major international trade pacts. Majorities in Japan (66%) and Vietnam (61%) hold this view, as do 72% in the Philippines and 80% in South Korea. The survey was conducted after Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement, of which Vietnam and Japan are signatories.Majorities in the four Asian countries also disapprove of Trump’s proposed policy to withdraw support for international climate change agreements.Concern is highest among Pyongyang’s closest neighbors – South Korea, Japan and the Philippines, where 85% or more in all three countries say they are at least somewhat concerned. Anxiety is greatest in Japan, where 66% say they are very concerned about North Korea having nuclear weapons. Within the Asia-Pacific region, people in Vietnam are least worried about North Korea’s nuclear program – only around a quarter (23%) say they are very concerned.Attitudes diverge on how to best deal with North Korea’s weapons program. A majority in Japan (61%) prefers increasing economic sanctions, as do around half of South Koreans (51%). Those in Vietnam and the Philippines, on the other hand, lean toward deepening ties with North Korea (43% and 45%, respectively).People in the region are split on how relations will change between the U.S. and their country. Many countries around the world do not expect relations between their country and the U.S. to change over the next few years with Trump as president. Globally, a median of 41% expect relations to stay about the same and 32% expect relations to get worse. Within the Asia-Pacific region, countries are split. About as many in South Korea say relations will stay about the same (45%) as say they expect relations to sour (43%). Around a third (34%) in Japan say relations will stay about the same, compared with four-in-ten (41%) who expect relations will get worse and 17% who say relations with the U.S. will get better. In the Philippines and Vietnam, people are more likely to say relations with the U.S. will stay the same or improve now that Trump is president.China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, and India are the "Big Five" largest crude oil producers in Asia, accounting for 89% of regional production , and their dominance is likely to continue in the near future.

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